Arsenal’s chances of winning the Premier League have increased by 5.8% according to Opta after their 3-2 victory over rivals Tottenham in the north London derby.
Mikel Arteta’s side are one point clear of second-placed Manchester City, who have a game in hand and won 2-0 at Nottingham Forest on Sunday.
A run of one win from five league games has seen Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool’s drop more or less out of contention, with Opta giving them just a 0.1% chance.
Despite Arsenal’s rise, Opta, with its 10,000 ‘supercomputer’ simulations, believes City’s dressing room is the place to be, with Pep Guardiola’s side having a 67.4% chance of winning a historic fourth Premier League title in a row.
| Team | % chance of winning title | Current position & points |
| 1. Man City | 67.4 | 2nd – 79 points |
| 2. Arsenal | 32.5 | 1st – 80 points |
| 3. Liverpool | 0.1 | 3rd – 75 points |
Current Premier League table
| Team | Played | Points | GD | GS | Form (past 5 games) |
| 1. Arsenal | 35 | 80 | 57 | 85 | WLWWW |
| 2. Man City | 34 | 79 | 50 | 82 | WWWWW |
| 3. Liverpool | 35 | 75 | 41 | 77 | DLWLD |
| If teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference and, if still level, goals scored |
What are the remaining fixtures?
| 4 May | Bournemouth (h) | Wolves (h) | |
| 5 May | Tottenham (h) | ||
| 11 May | Fulham (a) | ||
| 12 May | Man Utd (a) | ||
| 13 May | Aston Villa (a) | ||
| 14 May | Tottenham (a) | ||
| 19 May | Everton (h) | West Ham (h) | Wolves (h) |
When were the closest three-way title races?
There have been a handful of three-way Premier League title races that went down to the final weeks.
2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014, only two points separated Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea. City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool and went on to snatch the title. Liverpool’s disappointment was characterised by Steven Gerrard’s famous slip in their 2-0 defeat against Chelsea and then Crystal Palace’s comeback from three goals down to draw 3-3.
2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Manchester United a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were partway through a run of 11 consecutive wins. They sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.
1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left, Manchester United were level on 61 points with Newcastle, and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more at the time, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan’s Magpies.
What happened at this stage last year?
What if the teams finish level on points?
Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.
Whatever happens, don’t be too surprised if there are more twists and turns between now and the final day of the season on 19 May.
