Vietnam has become the only nation this year to host the leaders of the world’s two most powerful nations, underscoring the remarkable rise of a once-impoverished and war-stricken nation.
Vietnam’s famed “bamboo” diplomacy shifted into high gear this week, as the Southeast Asian nation hosted Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping to mark a “new historic milestone” in bilateral relations.
The high-profile visit came just months after Hanoi also hosted US President Joseph Biden, who oversaw the signing of a new comprehensive strategic partnership pact.
Accompanied by Chinese First Lady Peng Liyuan, Xi was greeted with a 21-gun salute, a military band serenade, and a score of smiling, flag-waving children in Hanoi.
This was Xi’s first to visit Vietnam in six years, and only fourth overseas trip since cementing his third term in office last year. His two-day state visit was not short of symbolism.
The Chinese paramount leader laid a wreath at the mausoleum of Vietnamese revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh, who heavily relied on Chinese Communist Party support during one of the most tumultuous anti-colonial conflicts in the 20th century.
He also met with all of Vietnam’s top leaders, including Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, the chairman of Vietnam’s National Assembly, Vuong Dinh Hue, and President Vo Van Thuong.
In a 16-page joint statement, the neighboring states vowed to strengthen cooperation in all major dimensions of bilateral relations, thus in effect putting China atop Vietnam’s pecking order of foreign relations.
The two sides announced the establishment of a strategic China-Vietnam “community of ‘shared future’ to promote the upgrading of China-Vietnam relations,” according to Xi during his meeting with Hue.
Crucially, the two communist nations also underscored their shared concern over a “color revolution” at home, a thinly veiled criticism of allegedly Western-backed popular revolts against authoritarian regimes in Eastern Europe and the Middle East in recent decades.
‘Political trust’
Vietnamese Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong hailed “new positioning of relations” and welcomed a historic opportunity to take Vietnam-China relations to “a new height” amid booming trade and investment ties.
The two sides agreed to “unceasingly consolidate political trust” and enhance bilateral relations “on the basis of mutual respect, equal and win-win cooperation.”
Nevertheless, Vietnam insisted on respect for each other’s “independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity” in a subtle reference to long-standing maritime disputes between the two sides in the South China Sea.
Accordingly, China and Vietnam agreed to conduct joint military patrols in the Gulf of Tonkin in the South China Sea and enhance military-to-military communications through a hotline for about “unexpected incidents arising from fisheries activities at sea.”
The timing and tenor of Xi’s visit is evidence of Vietnam’s commitment to optimize its newfound strategic sweet spot through a hyperactive “multi-alignment” strategy. Just weeks earlier, Vietnam’s top leaders were in the United States and Japan to further bolster strategic cooperation.
In a historic speech before the Japanese parliament, Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong officially welcomed “Japan playing a more important and active role in the Indo-Pacific and Asia Pacific.”
Describing Japan as Vietnam’s “most important partner,” he spoke of “predestined connections” ahead of signing a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Accordingly, Japan, which has launched a new Official Security Assistance initiative in the Indo-Pacific region, has vowed not only to expand high-quality investments in the Southeast Asian nation, but also to assist Vietnam’s maritime security capability development amid rising tensions in the South China Sea.
US-Vietnam ties
Just days earlier, the Vietnamese president was in San Francisco on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit (APEC) forum, where he marveled at the rapid transformation of US-Vietnam ties in the past decade alone.
During his historic visit to Hanoi in September, Biden upgraded bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, with both sides exploring unprecedented military, economic, and high-tech cooperation, including in semiconductor production, with an eye on China.
Quietly, Vietnam has also been exploring a multibillion-dollar defense deal with its historic partner, Russia, which is still under heavy Western sanctions. Emboldened by its multifarious strategic partnerships, Vietnam now felt more confident than ever to engage with China from a position of strength.
Domestic developments in Hanoi, meanwhile, are also bolstering party-to-party ties with Beijing.
In recent years, Vietnam’s relatively liberal and West-friendly leaders have been gradually sidelined under the guise of anti-corruption initiatives. The upshot is the emergence of a more ideologically oriented regime, which is far more concerned with the rise of a Western-oriented middle class at home amid a decade of rapid economic growth.
Moreover, Vietnam’s Communist leadership, which was born out of decades of brutal conflict with Western powers, also broadly shares China’s push for a post-American global order. On both the Ukraine and Gaza-Israel conflicts, Hanoi’s official position has mirrored Beijing’s, underscoring the depth of convergence in the two nations’ outlook on the international system.
During his visit, Xi said the two countries “should be vigilant against and oppose any attempt to mess up Asia-Pacific,” a thinly veiled criticism of America’s efforts to build a regional alliance against the Asian superpower.
“We should strengthen coordination and cooperation in international affairs, and jointly maintain a sound external environment,” the Chinese leader added.
Buoyed by his warm reception in Hanoi, Xi even expressed optimism over potential Vietnamese support for Beijing’s future plans vis-à-vis Taiwan: “[We believe] Vietnam will continue to support China in opposing external interference and firmly advancing the great cause of national reunification.”
On his part, Chính said his country is committed to “supporting China to strongly develop, promoting its role as a major country with important contributions to the international community, supporting initiatives by Comrade Xi Jinping for peace, cooperation and development in the world.”
Economic ties
The great glue in bilateral relations, however, is economics. With Vietnam emerging as a manufacturing powerhouse, it has also become more reliant on Chinese raw materials, capital and technology.
In fact, a significant amount of Vietnam’s exports have a Chinese component, thus reinforcing the Southeast Asian nation’s subtle but seismic integration into the broader Beijing-dominated production network centered in southern China.
For China, the Southeast Asian nation serves as a crucial platform to circumvent Western sanctions and prevent any major “decoupling” in the global supply chains.
In their joint statement, the two sides vowed to enhance infrastructure connectivity as well as “digital data cooperation.” Under the “two corridors, one belt” initiative, Xi offered significant funding for railway and critical infrastructure investments, especially between the southern Chinese city of Kunming and the northern Vietnamese port of Haiphong.
China is also interested in accessing Vietnam’s rare earths amid its brewing “chip war” with the West.
Though friendly, Vietnam’s leaders were more circumspect than their Chinese guest. Vietnam seems committed to maintaining strict regulation on rare-earth ores exports, as it it wants to process them at home for its own burgeoning semiconductor industry. Vietnam has also been reticent to accept large-scale Chinese investments, especially in critical infrastructure, in order to avoid dependency.
While welcoming establishment of more guardrails and better communications, Vietnam’s party chief also made it clear that it won’t compromise on core national-interest issues, thus the need for both countries to “respect each other’s legal and legitimate interests; not to complicate the situation; settle disputes via peaceful measures in accordance with international laws.”
Overall, the two sides signed 36 cooperation agreements, down from the originally proposed 45 deals – likely reflecting Vietnam’s cautious approach to its more powerful neighbor.
Eager to become a high-income nation by the middle of the century, Vietnam has pragmatically sought to keep relations with China on an even keel in order to sustain booming bilateral economic and investment ties.
But the Asian superpower would be mistaken to think that the Southeast Asian nation has either forgotten about their fraught history of conflicts or the festering maritime disputes in the South China Sea, which could torpedo plans for a Beijing-led “community of shared future” with smaller neighboring states.
