KUALA LUMPUR, March 20 — CIMB Investment Bank Bhd has lowered Malaysia’s inflation rate for 2024 from 3.0 per cent to 2.7 per cent to reflect updated consumer price index (CPI) weights.
In a note today, the bank said core inflation is expected to be at 2-3 per cent and a pause on overnight policy rate (OPR) hikes.
“We reiterate our OPR view of an extended pause at 3.00 per cent as BNM’s positive growth prognosis, forthcoming administered price policy-driven inflation risks, and efforts to mitigate near-term foreign exchange (FX) volatility diminish the temptation to follow global central banks as they prepare to begin interest rate cuts.”
The note said efforts to mitigate FX volatility will be a transitory constraint.
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“We continue to note foreign currency preference in both deposit behaviour as well as FX-hedged non-resident bond market inflows, which compare favourably against regional peers,” it said.
The note said Bank Negara Malaysia’s headline inflation forecast is slightly lower at 2.0-3.5 per cent (Finance Ministry: 2.1-3.6 per cent), incorporating upside from subsidy rationalisation, tax changes, and utility tariffs, and may reflect the milder estimated impact of fuel subsidy cuts after transport CPI weights were reduced in the 2024 rebasing exercise by 3.3 percentage points. — Bernama
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